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National, legislative and business issues to dominate Cole-Justice match-up

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By David Gutman

Bill Cole would like you to think Jim Justice is the same as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Jim Justice would like you to think he's just a businessman, a world apart from politics, especially national politics.

Both candidates for governor will be happy to talk about Cole's record leading the Legislature as Senate president the past two years.

And both candidates will frequently discuss Justice's business record, as the coal, agriculture and tourism tycoon amassed a fortune larger than anyone else in West Virginia.

The race to be West Virginia's next governor will be won or lost based on how closely Cole can tie Justice to national Democrats, how voters view the radical changes implemented by Cole's Legislature and what they think of Justice's undeniable business success that's dotted with legal disputes and late payments to vendors.

Cole, a Republican who was unopposed in last week's primary elections, wasted no time in his Tuesday night speech before declaring the forthcoming election a choice about whether we "continue to support Washington politicians."

"I stand with Donald Trump because he will stop the EPA's assault on our coal industry," Cole said, according to prepared remarks. "Whoever my opponent ends up being tonight, understand, they voted for either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders today."

Trump is the least popular presidential candidate in modern American history, according to favorability ratings compiled by Cornell University's Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

But that's not the case in West Virginia, where he won Tuesday's primary in a landslide and will almost certainly do the same in November.

Not only did Cole endorse Trump and speak at his rally in Charleston earlier this month, but he returned to the stage in the middle of Trump's speech solely for photo-op purposes.

"A lot of national issues will play into this race," said Conrad Lucas, chairman of the state's Republican Party. "[Justice] is a Democrat, and as a result of that, he is directly tied to Hillary Clinton and her anti-coal policies."

West Virginia Republicans have made huge gains in recent elections, capitalizing on Obama's unpopularity to tie state and local Democrats to coal's decline, despite the fact that the industry's struggles are driven as much by cheap natural gas, depleted seams and a shifting world economy as they are by federal regulations. They're using a similar strategy this year, but in the governor's race they're attempting to tie Justice, whose family made its fortune in coal, to the "war on coal."

"I think the people of West Virginia are somewhat insulted by anyone trying to say Jim Justice would resemble a Democrat out of Washington," said Larry Puccio, a senior consultant to Justice's campaign. "Jim Justice is Jim Justice. People will vote for Jim or against Jim because of Jim."

Puccio noted that Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Sen. Joe Manchin, both Democrats, have won statewide races while running in the same elections as Democratic presidential candidates who lost handily in West Virginia.

Cole and Justice will be fighting for voters like Sam Callison, a surface miner from Lewisburg who works for Seminole Coal in Kanawha County and cast a Democratic ballot in the primary.

"I hate to say it, but I'm going to vote for Jim Justice," Callison said Tuesday outside the Greenbrier County Courthouse. "I hate Jim Justice because he didn't pay his damn bills."

On the other hand, Callison, whose pickup truck has a confederate flag in the window and a "WV Coal" license plate, doesn't like Cole because he led the way in repealing the state's prevailing wage law, which Callison said hurt a bunch of guys he's worked with.

Callison said he cast his presidential vote for Huntington lawyer Paul Farrell, essentially a Democratic protest candidate, but one who won a healthy 9 percent of the primary vote.

In the fall, Callison will be voting for Trump.

Justice won a larger-than-expected victory in the primary - taking 51 percent of the vote and 48 of 55 counties, despite facing two serious competitors.

But a full one-third of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia said they would be voting for Trump in the fall, according to ABC News exit polls, a big chunk for Justice to make up.

Callison mentioned both areas that, other than presidential politics, will be major grist in the gubernatorial race - Cole's legislative record and Justice's business record.

Justice spent much of his election-night speech talking about his business record and his love for West Virginia, but did briefly criticize the Legislature.

"Jobs, jobs, jobs, those are the things we should be working on. We spent all kinds of time on raw milk - are you kidding me?" he said of the Legislature. "We still have not passed a budget. We have a dysfunctional Legislature today and the Republicans control both sides. How in the world does that work?"

The Legislature will return for a special session on Monday, as it attempts to close a budget deficit approaching $300 million.

Neither Cole nor Justice particularly likes Tomblin's plan, which, after several consecutive years of across-the-board spending cuts, would raise taxes on tobacco and cellphone bills to help fill the budget gap.

Cole supports major cuts to state government - "right-sizing," his campaign says. Justice has not offered a plan for the current budget crisis, and in the long term supports neither cuts nor tax increases, relying instead on unsupported promises to increase revenue by growing jobs.

Cole on Tuesday touted the Legislature's passage of a right-to-work law as "a loud and clear message to businesses across the country that West Virginia is going to be open for business again."

Democrats will point to right-to-work and prevailing wage - both of which passed without a single Democratic vote and over Tomblin's veto - as evidence that Cole favors business elites over workers.

"It's going to be hard for him to say he's interested in creating jobs and helping working class people when he did the opposite with every piece of legislation that came through," Democratic Party Chair Belinda Biafore said.

On Tuesday night, Justice made a quick segue from the unsettled state budget to his success with The Greenbrier resort, one of the rationales for his campaign.

"I would tell you, in conclusion, just this," he said. "We can't pass a budget. The New Orleans Saints agreed to come here. I had 100 days, 100 days to build three football fields, a sports performance facility. And I did it in 100 days, and I'll ask you just one question: Do you want a politician or do you want a builder?"

But as much as Justice touts his business success, Republicans will fire back on his business practices.

Within a day of the primary, the Republican Governors Association, which has already spent more than $550,000 boosting Cole and will certainly spend much more, had sent out three news releases knocking Justice for vendor disputes, late taxes and unpaid fines related to his businesses.

"Sen. Cole will be able to run on his very strong record of reforms that have been made in West Virginia since he's taken the helm of the state Senate," Lucas said. "That, versus Jim Justice's dishonest business practices."

Cole has trailed Justice in every public poll of general election match-ups (all conducted before the primary) and, despite the fact that he is the Senate president, almost surely has less name recognition than the state's richest man and savior of The Greenbrier.

Cole's campaign wasted no time on primary night, immediately calling for a series of debates over the next six months.

The next day, Kent Gates, Cole's campaign consultant, sent a news release spelling out the details of their request for seven debates.

Justice, who only acquiesced to one debate during the primary, shrugged off the request, writing that "anytime your opponent is losing they come crying for more debates."

It's a familiar campaign back-and-forth.

Two years ago in West Virginia's last major statewide race, Gates and the Republicans were on the other side, as their candidate was the one leading in the polls and turning down debates.

In 2014, Gates was the lead consultant for then-Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's campaign for U.S. Senate. On primary night in 2014, Capito's opponent, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, wasted no time calling for a series of five debates before the election.

Capito responded that night with, "sure, let's debate," but in the end, didn't go along. There was no series of debates. There was one debate, plus a forum, and Capito won in a landslide in November.

Reach David Gutman at david.gutman@wvgazettemail.com, 304-348-5119 or follow @davidlgutman on Twitter.


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